http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5971162/site/newsweek/
By Brian Braiker
Newsweek
Updated: 3:46 p.m. ET Sept. 11, 2004
Sept. 11 - One week after the conclusion of the Republican
National Convention in New York, the latest NEWSWEEK poll
shows George W. Bush's double-digit "bounce" narrowing by
to six points. Bush-Cheney had enjoyed an 11-point lead
over the Kerry-Edwards ticket coming out of their
convention, but in the latest poll, taken on the eve of the
third anniversary of the September 11 attacks, the
incumbents now lead 49 percent to 43 percent in a three-way
race.
advertisement
With 2 percent of the vote going to Ralph Nader, removing
the independent candidate from the ticket has little effect
on the spread, with 50 percent of the vote for Bush and 45
percent Kerry. (The sudden shift in the NEWSWEEK poll from
last week's results is dramatic but not unprecedented-in
1988 Michael Dukakis's 17-point lead dropped to 10 points
within two weeks.)
The poll also found that as convention buzz subsides,
Bush's approval ratings have again dropped below the 50
percent mark (48 percent approve, 44 percent disapprove).
Bush's favorability ratings have also slipped slightly, to
52 percent favorable (and 44 percent unfavorable) from 55
percent favorable (40 percent unfavorable). Kerry's
favorability ratings, which had dropped to 45 percent (and
46 percent unfavorable) during the Republican convention
have climbed slightly to 48 percent and 44 percent, but
still remain lower than they were before the GOP gathering.
Still, regardless of whom they support, a majority of
registered voters (60 percent) believe that the president
will be reelected in November. Bush has maintained the high
personal marks he won at the convention: two-thirds of all
voters see him as a strong leader (62 percent), forthright
(66 percent) and personally likeable (67 percent).
Meanwhile, as both campaigns ratcheted up the intensity,
the election is widely viewed (by 79 percent of all voters)
as too negative. And 53 percent of voters say they are
dissatisfied with the "way things are going" in the United
States (39 percent are satisfied).
One of the bigger election stories of the past week
centered on new doubts about whether the president had
fulfilled his military obligations during Vietnam. With
recent reports suggesting that as a younger man Bush did
not meet his stateside National Guard obligations during
the Vietnam war, voters are split on what they believe-42
percent of all voters say they now have serious doubts, the
same number says he did his duty. The president's personal
ratings on honesty took a hit this week, with 55 percent
saying they view Bush as "honest and ethical" and 40
percent saying they do not. Seven days ago, those numbers
were 62 percent and 33 percent.
Kerry, who has had his own service impugned by a group of
swift boat veterans, has seen his four months in Vietnam
become a net positive among independent, or swing, voters:
Sixteen percent of them say his service makes them more
likely to vote for him, 12 percent it makes them less
likely. Bush's military record leaves 19 percent of
independent voters saying they are less likely to vote for
him (with 4 percent more likely).
But Kerry has also seen his negative ratings increase on
personal issues. In early July, 55 percent said the senator
from Massachusetts had "strong leadership qualities," vs.
27 percent who said he did not. Today the number of voters
who give Kerry high marks on leadership has slipped to 50
percent with almost as many (40 percent) seeing him as not
a strong leader. Voters are also divided on whether they
would trust him to make the right decisions in an
international crisis (46 percent yes, 45 percent no) even
though three quarters of all voters (74 percent) see Kerry
as being "intelligent and well informed." (Six in ten, 59
percent, would describe the president that way.)
Voters' rankings of key issues of concern has not shifted
significantly since the conclusion of the Republican
convention in New York. Although terrorism is the top
concern for 25 percent of all voters, domestic issues
dominate the list when it comes to deciding who gets the
vote, starting with the economy (21 percent), followed by
health care (14 percent), jobs and foreign competition (9
percent), education (7 percent) and taxes (2 percent).
Fifteen percent consider the war in Iraq the most pressing
issue. As a candidate, Kerry is more competitive than Bush
on these domestic issues, with voters preferring him to
Bush on health care (50 percent versus 40 percent) and jobs
(47 percent to 42 percent). Bush has the edge on fighting
terror (58 percent to Kerry's 34) and Iraq (54 percent to
39). The two are neck and neck on education and the
economy.
More than one-third of all voters (38 percent) agreed with
Vice President Dick Cheney when he asserted this week that
electing Kerry as president would be "the wrong choice"
because "the danger is that we'll get hit again." Those
numbers break down along party lines with 71 percent of
Republicans believing the United States would be more
vulnerable under a Kerry administration, while 43 percent
of Democrats, a plurality, think the country would be less
vulnerable. Meanwhile, a vast majority of the electorate
(79 percent) think one or both of the campaigns have been
too negative.
For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates
interviewed 1,003 registered voters aged 18 and older Sept.
9 and Sept. 10 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or
minus 4 percentage points.
2004 Newsweek, Inc.