Democrat John Kerry continues to lead
ZOGBY INTERACTIVE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND POLL
A Report by Fritz Wenzel Senior Political Writer
August 24, 2004 Seventh in a series
Well into the dog days of summer, the race for President of the United States
has all but frozen in place, with
Democratic challenger John Kerry holding on to a lead he had built with the
announcement of his running mate, North
Carolina Sen. John Edwards, weeks before their partys convention last month.
Meanwhile, Republican President George W. Bush has tried without success to make
meaningful progress with a heavy
barrage of television and radio advertisements in battleground states, combined
with an aggressive travel schedule that
has taken him coast-to-coast.
Heading into the Republican National Convention next week, little has changed in
the minds of voters, the Zogby
Interactive battleground poll shows. The collection of polls in 16 key toss-up
states shows Mr. Kerry leading, 286
Electoral College votes to 214 Electoral College votes for Mr. Bush.
Not included in the tally are those votes from two states that remain too close
to call: Florida, with 27 votes, and
Missouri, with 11. Not that several other states are very close to being pure
toss-ups as well. Its just that these two are
with mere tenths of a percentage point. Here is the latest Zogby chart of the
race:
It is important to remember that this chart reflects the sentiments of likely
voters in 16 key battleground states, and
carries with it the assumption that the 34 states not included in this poll will
go in the 2004 presidential election to the
candidate of the same party who won them four years ago. Each state poll carries
its own margin of error, as is noted at
the bottom of each state chart found below. Four new states have been added to
the polling for this period, and those
results are noted at the end of this report, but they are not reflected in the
chart above.
Since the Democratic National Convention in Boston, where Mr. Kerry was
introduced amid a celebration of his
service to country during the Vietnam War more than 30 years before and where he
announced he was "reporting for
duty," his service during that war has been at the center of controversies that
have hit hard and fast. They have ranged
from questions about his whereabouts on Christmas eve, 1968, to whether he was
taking enemy fire as he snatched a
fellow soldier apparently thrown from his boat by an exploding mine - from a
river.
The ads in battleground states neither campaign wastes money wooing voters in
places like New York and California
where the outcome in the race is a foregone conclusion has taken a decidedly
negative spin. While independent "527"
groups favoring Mr. Kerry have savaged the President non-stop since late last
year, GOP-leaning groups have recently
gotten into the act, savaging Mr. Kerry, mostly for so-called "flip-flops" on
taxes and on his Vietnam service. The
pounding has been relentless.
Another development in the race in the last two weeks has been the
re-introduction of First Lady Laura Bush as a new
political force. The Bush campaign, knowing the President is running weakly
among women and younger voters, has
sent Mrs. Bush out to the hinterlands of key states to campaign, focusing mainly
on how her husbands presidency has
helped women around the world (mostly in Afghanistan and Iraq) and here at home.
She draws enthusiastic crowds,
mostly women, but seldom varies from a prepared text.
In an interview during a recent trip to six key states, she told reporters she
does not enjoy how this campaign has played
out, but is committed to working rope lines and dining halls from now until
Election Day to see to it she and her
husband get four more years in Washington.
ZOGBY'S RACE SO FAR: Aug. 23 Aug. 3 Jul 26 Jul 10 Jun 20 Jun 6 May 23
President Bush 214 215 220 205 285 242 218
Senator Kerry 286 291 275 322 253 296 320
Here, then, is a run-down in 16 key battleground states:
MOE +/- 4.4 percentage points
Despite improvements in how Arkansans see the nation, President Bushs fortunes
here have continued to slip. In May,
54% said they felt the nation was headed in the wrong direction, compared to 49%
who agreed with that statement now.
While Mr. Bushs favorability ratings have slipped slightly in recent months,
the image of challenger Kerry have
improved by several points, to where the two are now in a dead heat in terms of
the esteem in which they are held in
this state.
While 49% give Mr. Bush a positive on-the-job rating, just 44% say he should be
re-elected.
An interesting development here the percentage of people who said they may
change their minds about the race
before Election Day has ballooned to 17%, throwing this state into flux.
BACKGROUNDER: Modern-day Arkansas is a typical southern state that shows favor
both for Republicans and for
southern Democrats. Bill Clinton won his home state in both 1996 and 1992, and
Georgias Jimmy Carter cruised to
victory here in 1976. But it turned its back on Clintons vice president four
years ago; George Bush won here by more
than 5 percent over Al Gore, whose southern credentials were in question
throughout the region. It wasnt the first time
Arkansas gave up on a fellow southerner - at the height of troubled economic
times that featured high inflation and
higher interest rates, Ronald Reagan narrowly snared the state from Carter in
1980.
ARKANSAS COLLEGE VOTES: 6
MOE +/- 2.6 percentage points
The race here remains so close that this states 27 Electoral College votes
remain on the sidelines again for this chapter
of the Zogby Interactive poll. Mr. Kerry leads slightly among those older
voters, of which there are many here, while
Mr. Bush remains strong even in the states big cities, which include
substantial Cuban populations.
In what is something of an anomaly, Mr. Bush leads among voters under age 35. In
other states, he gets whipped in that
demographic. Here, his narrow edge makes up for the slight advantage Mr. Kerry
enjoys with older citizens. However,
Mr. Kerry can be buoyed by the knowledge that older voters go to the polls in
greater percentages.
Mr. Bush is slightly underwater when it comes to his re-electability. When asked
whether he should get four more
years at the White House, 48% said yes, while 51% said no. In other states, he
is not even within striking distance.
BACKGROUNDER: Home to the election debacle of 2000, Florida has favored
Republicans when there wasnt a
southern Democrat at the top of the ticket. Mr. Clinton won it in 1996, but was
narrowly defeated in 1992 by the
current presidents father. Before that, Republicans controlled it reliably in
the modern era with the exception of 1976,
when Jimmy Carter from Georgia next door was on the ballot. Democrat Lyndon
narrowly won the state in 1964,
ARKANSAS Aug. 23 Aug. 3 Jul 26 Jul 10 Jun 20 Jun 6 May 23
President George W. BUSH 46% 48% 47% 47% 45% 51% 50%

Dan " Do You Want Fries With That " Blather wrote:
Criminal Bu$h on the way to War Crimes Tribunal.
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/12/04
Bu$h 47
Kerry 47
IC
Bu$h 46
Kerry 50
GWU Battleground
Bu$h 47
Kerry 49