Welcome to the MCI WorldCom national economy. The entire US economy is
hoping to successfully copy the moves that just got good ole Bernie 11
felony convictions. We have too much money heading out, not enough heading
in

So the question is, what happens when all this starts to rapidly tumble
downhill?
I agree with the diagnosis, now how about some predictions?

On Tue, 29 Mar 2005 06:26:19 GMT, "Falky foo"
<falkyfoo@bonksbcglobal.net> wrote or quoted :
The USA is not the first country to get itself financial trouble.
Think about what happened to the Argentinians.
Some of the things that happen are:
1. prices of imported goods zoom.
2. high unemployment.
3. forced extreme austerity on government spending. Basically all
government services stop, possibly even water and sewers.
4. Privatisation of functions previously handled by the government.
5. end of welfare, old age pensions, Medicare etc.
6. extreme inflation.
7. military spending will plummet.

I agree with the diagnosis, now how about some predictions?

Some long term predictions:
- Increasing volatility in the stock market
- Investors pulling out of the stock market as they start to get
burned, and mutual funds no longer looking like a sure fire way to save
for retirement (remember it's the mutual funds that prop prices up,
blessed longs)
- More exposed fraud, especially in the financial and insurance sectors
- More bankruptcies, both for individuals and companies
- Wealthy investors, insiders flee to foreign markets
- Quality of life dramatically worsening for the group of people who
get screwed whenever anyone is to be screwed -- the poor and elderly
- With the end of easy credit in debt-addicted America, you'll have
some very desperate people who sure as hell won't be consuming lots of
goods
- Fewer government programs and services. The spin about how tax cuts
helps everyone no longer works, and people demand government helps
improve their quality of life, but alas, the government is broke

"Roedy Green" <look-on@mindprod.com.invalid> wrote in message
news:qm4i41hbn82s38if7jrs4vhschhqjlnf7b@4ax.com...
I wonder if you guys are being a little too dire in your predictions
here. After all, even Boob has said on numerous occasions that all this
looting of stock equity has been going on for 20 years or so. There
may be no runaway downhill market, as this has been and will continue
to be orchestrated by the federal reserve. My guess is that some think
tank has determined that our present government is not suitable for the
21st century and that a USA governed more on the style of China is the
new plan. To that end, it may make sense that the largest and most
critical public companies be allowed to become bankrupt so as to
facilitate an easier eventual takeover by the state. Then again, maybe
there is no plan and everything will crash and burn as you have
detailed.

Simply Unsustainable March 27, 2005
Max Fraad Wolff is a Doctoral Candidate in Economics at the University of
Massachusetts, Amherst.
As this goes to press the American domestic economy and global balances
are spiraling further and further away from safe and sustainable orbit.
Our stubborn refusal to even acknowledge our declining global economic
position and delusional upbeat domestic self perception are fast
approaching the strangeness level of the Michael Jackson trial.
Welcome to the MCI WorldCom national economy. The entire US economy is
hoping to successfully copy the moves that just got good ole Bernie 11
felony convictions. We have too much money heading out, not enough heading
in and our stock - the dollar - is likely to fall. Like MCI WorldCom we
have been riding waves of dubiously wise good will. Our current account
and budget imbalances are combining toward a $70-90 Billion shortfall per
month. The US is now consuming over 75% of the worlds available savings.
As of January The Treasury reports that just under $2 trillion of our
approximately $4.5 trillion national debt is foreign held- 44% of the debt
is foreign owned. Of this 24% of our total debt is held by Japan, Mainland
China, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. The CBO unrealistically and
super conservatively forecasts 2005 & 2006 deficits of only $650 billion.
These numbers are arrived at by excluding likely required Iraq/Afghanistan
and terror war spending. No budgeting is done for debt service payment
increase or growth in unfunded liabilities. Thus, estimates of budget
shortfalls in excess of 3% of GDP are gross understatements by design.
The government deficit is only half of the big imbalance story that calls
into question the present health of the US economy, the value of the
dollar and the reality basis for our self-perception. Our international
trade relations are in precarious shape. According to the Census Bureaus
year to date 2005 trade statistics we are on track to outperform last
years stunning shortfall. We are in deficit with 14 of our 15 leading
trading partners. Of the leading 15 partners, accounting for 75% of our
international trade, we are at surplus with only one, number 11 The
Netherlands. We are running massive deficits with the top five, Canada,
Mexico, China, Japan and Germany. Our falling dollar may be helping as
exports have risen. Unfortunately, the dollars declines have proved
insufficient to offset rapid growth in import demand. If January were to
prove average for 2005 will we experience an awe inspiring trade deficit
of $699.6 billion. While I doubt this will occur, the specter of this
dubious possible achievement should serve as a warning about the dangers
of the imbalance neighborhood in which we are currently living. There is
very little discussion or seeming recognition of this conundrum.
A third way to examine our sustainability issues is through the US NIIP,
Net International Investment Position. This measures the net ownership of
foreign assets by American citizens less the ownership of domestic assets
by non-citizens. For much of modern US history the NIIP was large and
positive. Across the 1980s a long term decline commenced that has led to
Americas present position as proud owner of the globe leading largest
negative number ever recorded. The US NIIP is rising from its negative
$2.5 trillion at the open of 2004. Today the NIIP is negative to the tune
of over 25% of GDP. We now celebrate this slide as we sell our assets to
the rest of the world at the recent rate of over $90 billion per month.
Levey and Brown suggest that there is nothing to worry about on this front
in he latest Foreign Affairs. They well express the absent concern about
these numbers and those mentioned above. Their thesis, and the
conventional wisdom, can be summed as follows: Its Ok, we are OK, we are
the globes leading economy, innovator and militaryblah, blah let them
eat cake. Here again the WorldCom comparison is interesting. WorldCom was
huge, rich and grew very fast- in no small part thanks to government and
military contracts. It almost passed AT&T its much older and more
established rival. Its stock growth was in the range of 50% per annum
across the 1990s and it was a deal, marketing and growth innovator.
Sadly, few people will remember that now that it is famous as the largest
bankruptcy in US history, Bernie is poised for jail and $11 billion in
book cooking was exposed. Just maybe there is a lesson there?
2005 award winner and standout in the unsustainability arena, the American
consumer economy. American households saw no 2004 increase in their
incomes despite declining tax burdens. We increasingly desire and consume
imports as leading firms sprint for the doors. We had a trade deficit of
approximately $650 billion last year as our currency fell in value
consistently. With 4.5% of the worlds population we import 25% of the
worlds increasingly expensive oil. A red hot housing bonanza feeds the
consumer economy. Houses have been ridiculously bid up by low interest
rates, reckless mortgage and securitization practices and foreign buying
of agency securities. The sinking American middle classes have pre-sold
their lackluster future earnings. Mortgage, car and credit card debt have
marched upward spiraling into the dubiously repayable trillions. Mortgage
debt stands approximately $7.5 trillions and credit debt is at about $2.2
trillions.
The country is on a borrowing binge, running up huge claims on future tax
revenues and incomes. Why bother mentioning this? We seem poised to enter
a period of rising interest rates, reduced credit access and growing fear
of long neglected credit risk. Thus, the above are the prelude to serious
structural adjustment in the US global position and macroeconomy. Here
again the WorldCom specter haunts. All of the above borrowing and
confident boast on position were tolerated as long as optimism and
acceptance defined the day. They still persist inside much of the US. This
seems decreasingly true globally. In the past month China, South Korea,
Japan, Malaysia, Ukraine, Russia, India and others have rumbled or
announced diversification needs, plans or desires. Finally, like the tech
boom, there is question of what all this borrowed money has been spent on.
The American Society of Civil Engineers 2005 Infrastructure Report Card
gives the US a grade of D and talks of a looming crisis absent $1.5
trillions in emergency repair. The CBO presently estimates that Government
debt service will cost $350 billion this year and $400 billion in 2006.
Thus, our borrowing ceiling is being approached, while vital projects are
ignored. The consumer has been similarly imprudent. Skyrocketing debt has
been spent on bigger houses, newer cars, luxury goods, sky high medical
costs and debt service. All the while home equity has shrunk as people
pull value out of their houses faster than the asset bubble can inflate
their paper wealth. As interest rates rise, credit rationing returns and
credit risks are reassessed, the state and consumer are terribly
positi

And you have GW Bush to thank.

On 4-Apr-2005, Yik Yak <jim553@hotmail.com> wrote:
Yeah, it would be a lot cheaper to rebuild all of our
buildings and cities after the terrorists took over
and planted bombs all over the place, wouldn't it
goober?

Which imaginary terrorists are you talking about, Bubba?

Simply Unsustainable March 27, 2005
Max Fraad Wolff is a Doctoral Candidate in Economics at the University of
Massachusetts, Amherst.
As this goes to press the American domestic economy and global balances
are spiraling further and further away from safe and sustainable orbit.
Our stubborn refusal to even acknowledge our declining global economic
position and delusional upbeat domestic self perception are fast
approaching the strangeness level of the Michael Jackson trial.
Welcome to the MCI WorldCom national economy. The entire US economy is
hoping to successfully copy the moves that just got good ole Bernie 11
felony convictions. We have too much money heading out, not enough heading
in and our stock - the dollar - is likely to fall. Like MCI WorldCom we
have been riding waves of dubiously wise good will. Our current account
and budget imbalances are combining toward a $70-90 Billion shortfall per
month. The US is now consuming over 75% of the world's available savings.
As of January The Treasury reports that just under $2 trillion of our
approximately $4.5 trillion national debt is foreign held- 44% of the debt
is foreign owned. Of this 24% of our total debt is held by Japan, Mainland
China, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. The CBO unrealistically and
super conservatively forecasts 2005 & 2006 deficits of only $650 billion.
These numbers are arrived at by excluding likely required Iraq/Afghanistan
and terror war spending. No budgeting is done for debt service payment
increase or growth in unfunded liabilities. Thus, estimates of budget
shortfalls in excess of 3% of GDP are gross understatements by design.
The government deficit is only half of the big imbalance story that calls
into question the present health of the US economy, the value of the
dollar and the reality basis for our self-perception. Our international
trade relations are in precarious shape. According to the Census Bureau's
year to date 2005 trade statistics we are on track to outperform last
year's stunning shortfall. We are in deficit with 14 of our 15 leading
trading partners. Of the leading 15 partners, accounting for 75% of our
international trade, we are at surplus with only one, number 11 The
Netherlands. We are running massive deficits with the top five, Canada,
Mexico, China, Japan and Germany. Our falling dollar may be helping as
exports have risen. Unfortunately, the dollar's declines have proved
insufficient to offset rapid growth in import demand. If January were to
prove average for 2005 will we experience an awe inspiring trade deficit
of $699.6 billion. While I doubt this will occur, the specter of this
dubious possible achievement should serve as a warning about the dangers
of the imbalance neighborhood in which we are currently living. There is
very little discussion or seeming recognition of this conundrum.
A third way to examine our sustainability issues is through the US NIIP,
Net International Investment Position. This measures the net ownership of
foreign assets by American citizens less the ownership of domestic assets
by non-citizens. For much of modern US history the NIIP was large and
positive. Across the 1980s a long term decline commenced that has led to
America's present position as proud owner of the globe leading largest
negative number ever recorded. The US NIIP is rising from its negative
$2.5 trillion at the open of 2004. Today the NIIP is negative to the tune
of over 25% of GDP. We now celebrate this slide as we sell our assets to
the rest of the world at the recent rate of over $90 billion per month.
Levey and Brown suggest that there is nothing to worry about on this front
in he latest Foreign Affairs. They well express the absent concern about
these numbers and those mentioned above. Their thesis, and the
conventional wisdom, can be summed as follows: Its Ok, we are OK, we are
the globe's leading economy, innovator and military.blah, blah. let them
eat cake. Here again the WorldCom comparison is interesting. WorldCom was
huge, rich and grew very fast- in no small part thanks to government and
military contracts. It almost passed AT&T its much older and more
established rival. Its stock growth was in the range of 50% per annum
across the 1990's and it was a deal, marketing and growth innovator.
Sadly, few people will remember that now that it is famous as the largest
bankruptcy in US history, Bernie is poised for jail and $11 billion in
book cooking was exposed. Just maybe there is a lesson there?
2005 award winner and standout in the unsustainability arena, the American
consumer economy. American households saw no 2004 increase in their
incomes despite declining tax burdens. We increasingly desire and consume
imports as leading firms sprint for the doors. We had a trade deficit of
approximately $650 billion last year as our currency fell in value
consistently. With 4.5% of the world's population we import 25% of the
world's increasingly expensive oil. A red hot housing bonanza feeds the
consumer economy. Houses have been ridiculously bid up by low interest
rates, reckless mortgage and securitization practices and foreign buying
of agency securities. The sinking American middle classes have pre-sold
their lackluster future earnings. Mortgage, car and credit card debt have
marched upward spiraling into the dubiously repayable trillions. Mortgage
debt stands approximately $7.5 trillions and credit debt is at about $2.2
trillions.
The country is on a borrowing binge, running up huge claims on future tax
revenues and incomes. Why bother mentioning this? We seem poised to enter
a period of rising interest rates, reduced credit access and growing fear
of long neglected credit risk. Thus, the above are the prelude to serious
structural adjustment in the US global position and macroeconomy. Here
again the WorldCom specter haunts. All of the above borrowing and
confident boast on position were tolerated as long as optimism and
acceptance defined the day. They still persist inside much of the US. This
seems decreasingly true globally. In the past month China, South Korea,
Japan, Malaysia, Ukraine, Russia, India and others have rumbled or
announced diversification needs, plans or desires. Finally, like the tech
boom, there is question of what all this borrowed money has been spent on.
The American Society of Civil Engineers 2005 Infrastructure Report Card
gives the US a grade of D and talks of a looming crisis absent $1.5
trillions in emergency repair. The CBO presently estimates that Government
debt service will cost $350 billion this year and $400 billion in 2006.
Thus, our borrowing ceiling is being approached, while vital projects are
ignored. The consumer has been similarly imprudent. Skyrocketing debt has
been spent on bigger houses, newer cars, luxury goods, sky high medical
costs and debt service. All the while home equity has shrunk as people
pull value out of their houses faster than the asset b

"Bishop" <The Bishop@InTheHall.Com> wrote in message
news:r4V3e.8459$Fh4.4942@fe2.columbus.rr.com...
Which imaginary terrorists are you talking about, Bubba?

On 3-Apr-2005, "Rocketman" <rocketman@bikerider.com> wrote:
And you have GW Bush to thank.
Yeah, it would be a lot cheaper to rebuild all of our
buildings and cities after the terrorists took over
and planted bombs all over the place, wouldn't it
goober?
The ones that are too busy in Iraq. That's the problem with
you left-libby morons. You don't understand preventive
pro-active measure. You'd rather wait until they start
killing people over here first. Moron.

On 4-Apr-2005, Yik Yak <jim553@hotmail.com> wrote:
Yeah, it would be a lot cheaper to rebuild all of our
buildings and cities after the terrorists took over
and planted bombs all over the place, wouldn't it
goober?